Best MLB Handicapper

Bregman to Cubs: Sharp Money Already Moving on Chicago's Win Total

Look, when a 3.5 WAR third baseman with a career 133 wRC+ signs with a team that went 92-70, the books don't sit around waiting. The Cubs' win total has already ticked up from 87.5 to 89.5 at most shops, and the sharp money isn't done yet.

The Lineup Protection Factor: Here's what casual bettors miss. Bregman doesn't just add his own production. He fundamentally changes how pitchers approach the entire Cubs lineup. Seiya Suzuki saw a .341 OBP in 2025, but he faced an alarming 31% chase rate when batting without protection in the 4-5 holes. Bregman's career walk rate (12.4%) and patient approach forces pitchers to attack the zone against the guys hitting in front of him.

Wrigley Field Factors: Bregman's power profile screams Wrigley. He hit .273/.360/.462 in 2025 with Boston, but Fenway's Green Monster actually suppressed his fly ball power. His 44.4% hard-hit rate and 90.1 mph average exit velocity translate beautifully to Wrigley's jet stream in summer months. From June through August, Wrigley posted a 1.12 park factor for home runs in 2025. I'm projecting 22-25 home runs for Bregman, up from his 18 in Boston.

The ATS Angle: The Cubs went 47-43 on the run line as favorites in 2025. Here's the key: they were 31-19 on the run line when scoring 5+ runs. With Bregman adding run production, I expect their 5+ run games to increase from 68 to approximately 78-82. More importantly, Bregman's career situational hitting (.289 with RISP, .301 in high-leverage) addresses their biggest weakness in one-run games (28-26 in 2025).

Cardinals Acquire Devin Williams from Brewers

St. Louis lands elite closer Devin Williams in a three-player deal. Williams, who had a 1.25 ERA with 36 saves in 2025, gives the Cardinals one of baseball's best bullpen arms. Milwaukee receives two top-10 prospects and a PTBNL.

This is significant for both teams' 2026 outlooks. The Cardinals' bullpen was a weakness last season; this move directly addresses that. Milwaukee continues their pattern of trading stars before free agency, stockpiling young talent.

2026 World Series Odds Movement

The Mets have settled as clear +550 favorites after the Soto signing. The Dodgers sit at +600, still dangerous despite losing Walker Buehler to free agency. Orioles have climbed to +900 after their aggressive winter spending.

Interesting value: Phillies at +850 seem undervalued. They've retained their core, added depth pieces, and should have a healthy Trea Turner for the full season. They were two wins from the World Series in 2025.

AL East Win Total Breakdown

The most competitive division in baseball just got more interesting. Here's how we see the projected standings shaping up:

Orioles (90.5): Adding Alonso, Helsley, Ward, and Baz addresses every weakness. The young core takes another step forward. Lean OVER.

Yankees (88.5): Losing Soto hurts, but they still have Judge, Cole, and a deep lineup. They'll compete. PUSH.

Blue Jays (87.5): Dylan Cease transforms this rotation. Vladdy stays, Bo comes back healthy. This team is better than last year. Lean OVER.

Red Sox (84.5): Bregman and Sonny Gray are nice adds, but is it enough? Young pitching needs to develop. UNDER risk.

Rays (78.5): Still run it back with the same blueprint. Always competitive, always underrated. OVER.

Remaining Free Agents to Watch

The market has slowed, but several impact players remain unsigned:

Anthony Santander (OF): 44 homers in 2025. Should land $100M+ deal. Phillies, Cubs, and Tigers linked.

Max Fried (SP): Elite lefty still seeking $150M+. Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox interested.

Christian Walker (1B): 35+ homers, elite defense. Blue Jays and Giants in talks.

Monitor these signings - each will move win totals and division odds when announced.